6
Sacred Connection
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 67
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 8-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 14/01/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 03/02/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 06/03/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 27/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 06/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 18/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 09/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 01/07/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |