4
Wicca Wisdom
7yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 76
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
32%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength92%
Delivery trend +5.3% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/02/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 33% | -0.58 |
| 12/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 31/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 06/05/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 27/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 16/06/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 09/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |