Liltonytwophones
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 80
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-17 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-07-22 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 90% | +0.64 |
| 09/04/2025 | 1st | 40/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 05/05/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 27/09/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/12/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |
| 02/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 17/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 03/09/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |