Mr. Bogan
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 76
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-08-03 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-03-31 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +7.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 03/01/2026 | 9th | 15/8 | 90% | 11% | -0.79 |
| 20/02/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 31/03/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 22/06/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 14% | -0.67 |
| 15/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 03/08/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 17/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |