Real Naughty
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 76
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-06-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-26 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-10-30 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 11/09/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 01/10/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 30/10/2025 | 6th | 13/8 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 26/11/2025 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 40% | -0.50 |
| 22/06/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 21/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 10/08/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |