It's Last Call
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 61
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 07/11/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 25/11/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 09/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 28/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 05/08/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 10/09/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 21/09/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |