2
Lao Way
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 55
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength61%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 07/05/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 21/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 20/08/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 08/09/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |