Lookin Like Lucky
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 62
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/04/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 07/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 20/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 28/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 05/08/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 01/09/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 10/09/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |