6
Polizon
3yo Colt · 8-3 · OR 68
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.8% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 26/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 28/07/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 05/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 21/09/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |