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Weekend Retreat

5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 38

Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m

#6

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Thistledown 25/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 51 · 6f Fas 119 · below its mark25/09/2025 · OR 51 par25/09C8OR 51C5 @ Thistledown 08/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 52 · 1m Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/10/2025 · OR 52 parC8 @ Mahoning Valley 21/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 45 · 6f 124 · below its mark21/10/2025 · OR 45 par21/10C8OR 45C8 @ Mahoning Valley 18/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 43 · 6f 124 · beat its mark18/11/2025 · OR 43 parC8 @ Mahoning Valley 16/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 44 · 6f 124 · below its mark16/12/2025 · OR 44 par16/12C8OR 44C8 @ Mahoning Valley 13/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 41 · 6f Slo 124 · below its mark13/01/2026 · OR 41 parC8 @ Thistledown 21/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 34 · 6f Slo 119 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 34 par21/07C8OR 34C8 @ Thistledown 20/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 29 · 6f 119 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 29 parC8 @ Thistledown 22/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 32 · 1m 119 · beat its mark22/09/2026 · OR 32 par22/09C8OR 32projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-22Thistledown?4th4th0
2026-08-20Thistledown?6th6th0
2026-07-21Thistledown?5th5th0
2026-01-13Mahoning Valley?9th9th0
2025-12-16Mahoning Valley?7th7th0
2025-11-18Mahoning Valley?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0918/1121/0722/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength85%

Delivery trend +5.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/09/20254th6/168%50%-0.18
08/10/20257th25/10%0%0.00
21/10/20258th12/137%13%-0.24
18/11/20256th33/10%38%+0.38
16/12/20257th20/10%14%+0.14
13/01/20269th25/10%0%0.00
21/07/20265th16/116%20%+0.04
20/08/20266th25/10%29%+0.29
22/09/20264th20/10%40%+0.40