4
Wise Words
3yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 76
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
76%
Place Prob
54%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength83%
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 18/02/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 15/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 12/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 25/04/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 09/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 23/06/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 43% | -0.18 |
| 05/08/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |