A Cab On The Rocks
3yo Colt · 8-5 · OR 74
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-29 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-01-04 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-12-06 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-10-03 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 06/12/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 04/01/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 29/01/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 12/03/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 17/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |