6
Admiral Nelson
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 72
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength50%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 26/03/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 16/05/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 20/08/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 14% | -0.68 |
| 09/09/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |