Axcel
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 73
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/01/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 17/01/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 11/03/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 22/04/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 20/08/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 43% | -0.43 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 09/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 90% | +0.37 |