4
Eileen's Desperado
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 70
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Thistledown | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-18 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength54%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 29/10/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |
| 10/11/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 18/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 02/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 21/07/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 09/09/2026 | 10th | 4/1 | 79% | 10% | -0.69 |