Follow Your Dream
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 69
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2022-10-03 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2022-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/2022 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 15/09/2022 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 03/10/2022 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 01/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 13/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 20/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 09/09/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |