1
Game Performer
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 70
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
53%
Place Prob
44%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength64%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 10/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 05/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |
| 20/08/2026 | 8th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 10/09/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |