2
Spice Bag
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 72
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
39%
Place Prob
38%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength76%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 18/07/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 17/08/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 01/09/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 03/04/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 28/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 09/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 13/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |