6
Wasabi Beach
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 64
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-01-09 | Turfway Park | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
Delivery trend -5.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |
| 18/11/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 16/12/2025 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 09/01/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/02/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 29/07/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 07/09/2026 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |