3
City Scene
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 92
Thistledown · Race 7 - Greg Veit Scarlet And Gray Stakes · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
30%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 1.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-02 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength83%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/06/2025 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 08/07/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 04/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 02/10/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 22/04/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 40% | -0.51 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |