1
Country Promises
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 83
Thistledown · Race 7 - Greg Veit Scarlet And Gray Stakes · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength30%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 23/12/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 06/04/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 23/04/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 07/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 01/06/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 15/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 04/08/2026 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 43% | -0.50 |