5
She's Crafty
9yo Mare · 8-5 · OR 94
Thistledown · Race 7 - Greg Veit Scarlet And Gray Stakes · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-03-16 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-02-26 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-02-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-10-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 3-4 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength47%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/06/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 12/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 02/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 25/10/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 09/02/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 26/02/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 16/03/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 07/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 07/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |