4
Absolute Miracle
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 88
Thistledown · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
33%
Place Prob
31%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength45%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 20/04/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 06/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 09/07/2026 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 29% | -0.64 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 27/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 16/09/2026 | 5th | 6/5 | 94% | 20% | -0.74 |