6
Blazing Affair
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 87
Thistledown · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength54%
Delivery trend -6.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/11/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 03/01/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 08/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 86% | -0.07 |
| 15/03/2026 | 1st | 2/17 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 15/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 71% | -0.22 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 2/15 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 1/7 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 25/08/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |