7
Chess Not Checkers
7yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 83
Thistledown · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
25%
Place Prob
26%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength83%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 17/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 16/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |