1
Kozem
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 81
Thistledown · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
41%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-03 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength90%
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 19/12/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 13/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 03/02/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 78% | -0.09 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 28/07/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 25/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 16/09/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |