Pounds In Town
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 77
Thistledown · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-05-18 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-05-05 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 30/03/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 20/04/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 05/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 18/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 04/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 25/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 09/09/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |