3
Timely Secret
6yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 74
Thistledown · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-17 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength43%
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 06/01/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 29% | -0.35 |
| 03/02/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 05/03/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 30/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 23/09/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |