6
Staggerwing
3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 86
Vaal · www.tab.co.za Open Mr 97 Handicap (3 Year Olds) · 5f 212y
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength31%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Turffontein | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Turffontein | ? | 2nd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Vaal | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-03-07 | Turffontein | ? | 4th | -1th | +4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Turffontein | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-01-29 | Vaal | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 5-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength22%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/01/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 14/02/2026 | 2nd | 8/13 | 97% | 89% | -0.08 |
| 07/03/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 26/05/2026 | 1st | 3/10 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 86% | -0.07 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |