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Trompe L'oeil

3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 79

Vaal · www.tab.co.za Open Mr 97 Handicap (3 Year Olds) · 5f 212y

#6

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner. 2 wins from 5 runs this year. Latest win here in August. 3/1, good second of 7 in minor event at this C&D (good to soft) 21 days ago. Not easy to make a case for.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 2.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Vaal 02/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 1322/07C8C8 @ Turffontein 01/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 5f169y Gd 1251/08C8C7 @ Vaal 13/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 4f214y GS 13613/08C7C5 @ Turffontein 29/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 12029/08C5C0 @ Vaal 10/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 5f212y GS 12910/09C?projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Vaal?2nd2nd0
2026-08-29Turffontein?6th6th−0
2026-08-13Vaal?1st3rd−1
2026-08-01Turffontein?2nd5th−2
2026-07-02Vaal?1st4th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/071/0813/0829/0810/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength36%

Delivery trend -11.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/07/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
01/08/20262nd9/488%80%-0.08
13/08/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
29/08/20266th11/1094%0%-0.94
10/09/20262nd11/486%83%-0.02