7
Whatsdamatterwithu
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 85
Vaal · www.tab.co.za Open Mr 97 Handicap (3 Year Olds) · 5f 212y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
82%
Place Prob
57%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength22%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Turffontein | ? | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Turffontein | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-21 | Turffontein | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Turffontein | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-04-23 | Turffontein | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turffontein | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength70%
Delivery trend -6.8% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 21/03/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/04/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 21/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/13 | 97% | 67% | -0.30 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |