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6

Stage One

3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 32

Vaal · Tab Telebet 011 074 0300 Mr 66 Handicap · 5f 212y

#6

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winner at Turffontein in May. 33/1, fifth of 6 in handicap at Turffontein (5f, soft) 26 days ago. Can give a good account without posing serious threat to principals.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength67%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 7.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Vaal 26/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 4f214y GS 13226/03C8C8 @ Turffontein 12/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 5f169y Gd 126C8 @ Turffontein 23/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 4f214y GS 13223/04C8C8 @ Turffontein 07/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 5f212y GS 132C7 @ Vaal 26/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 5f212y 12726/05C7C6 @ Turffontein 29/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 115 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Turffontein 21/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR - · 5f169y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS21/07C5C7 @ Vaal 27/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Turffontein 05/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 4f214y GS 120 · HIGHER CLASS5/09C7projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Turffontein?5th5th+0
2026-08-27Vaal?5th4th+1
2026-07-21Turffontein?12th9th+3
2026-06-29Turffontein?11th10th+1
2026-05-26Vaal?5th5th−0
2026-05-07Turffontein?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/037/0521/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength32%

Delivery trend -4.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/03/20263rd66/10%71%+0.71
12/04/20268th18/15%0%-0.05
23/04/20265th66/10%43%+0.43
07/05/20261st33/10%100%+1.00
26/05/20265th40/10%64%+0.64
29/06/202611th80/10%0%0.00
21/07/202612th66/10%0%0.00
27/08/20265th40/10%43%+0.43
05/09/20265th40/10%20%+0.20