5
Lonely As A Cloud
5yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 52
Vaal · Play Soccer 6, 10 And 13 Mr 74 Handicap · 4f 214y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength61%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Turffontein | ? | 7th | 7th | +0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Vaal | ? | 3rd | 3rd | +0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Turffontein | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Vaal | ? | 3rd | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Greyville | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-05-16 | Turffontein | ? | 3rd | 3rd | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength51%
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/12/2025 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 22% | -0.41 |
| 11/01/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 05/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 06/06/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 13% | -0.56 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 78% | -0.05 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 13/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 05/09/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 14% | +0.09 |