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4

Taking A Risk

4yo Filly · 9-2

Vaal · Play Soccer 6, 10 And 13 Mr 74 Handicap · 4f 214y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Creditable second of 6 in handicap (28/10) at Turffontein (5f, soft) 26 days ago. Rejoined yard after leaving M.G.Azzie. Expected to be bang there.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Turffontein 16/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 5f169y Gd 13216/12C8C8 @ Turffontein 30/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 127C1 @ Vaal 17/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS17/01C1C7 @ Vaal 24/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 131C6 @ Turffontein 14/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR - · 5f169y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS14/03C6C7 @ Turffontein 30/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Vaal 14/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS14/05C7C7 @ Vaal 26/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 4f214y 125 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Turffontein 05/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 4f214y GS 1305/09C7projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Turffontein?2nd2nd−0
2026-05-26Vaal?2nd2nd+0
2026-05-14Vaal?2nd2nd+0
2026-04-30Turffontein?3rd3rd+0
2026-03-14Turffontein?5th5th+0
2026-02-24Vaal?3rd4th−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/1224/0214/055/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/12/20252nd8/158%86%+0.28
30/12/20251st11/1094%100%+0.06
17/01/20269th80/10%0%0.00
24/02/20263rd14/126%82%+0.56
14/03/20265th20/10%71%+0.71
30/04/20263rd40/10%85%+0.85
14/05/20262nd13/266%92%+0.26
26/05/20262nd9/488%92%+0.04
05/09/20262nd5/287%80%-0.07