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2

Var Park

7yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 48

Vaal · Play Soccer 6, 10 And 13 Mr 74 Handicap · 4f 214y

#8

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

3-time C&D winner. 75/1, sixth of 7 in handicap at Turffontein (5f, good) 12 days ago. Given a chance by the handicapper.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength62%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Turffontein 18/01/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 4f214y GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS18/01C6C7 @ Vaal 30/01/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 135C6 @ Vaal 06/03/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS6/03C6C6 @ Vaal 25/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 137 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Turffontein 11/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS11/07C6C5 @ Turffontein 25/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Turffontein 01/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS1/08C6C6 @ Turffontein 29/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Turffontein 19/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS19/09C6projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Turffontein?6th5th+1
2026-08-29Turffontein?7th7th+0
2026-08-01Turffontein?4th3rd+1
2026-07-25Turffontein?7th5th+1
2026-07-11Turffontein?6th5th+1
2026-06-25Vaal?9th9th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0125/061/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength68%

Delivery trend -3.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/01/20256th20/10%44%+0.44
30/01/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
06/03/20251st10/147%100%+0.53
25/06/20269th50/10%0%0.00
11/07/20266th80/10%0%0.00
25/07/20267th100/10%0%0.00
01/08/20264th40/10%25%+0.25
29/08/20267th66/10%0%0.00
19/09/20266th66/10%17%+0.17