6
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7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 66
Vaal · Betway Spring Challenge Bookings Call 011 681 1796 Middle Stakes · 7f 101y
#6
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Turffontein | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-08-16 | Turffontein | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Turffontein | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Vaal | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Vaal | ? | 1st | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Turffontein | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength39%
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 29/01/2026 | 12th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 26/02/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 12/03/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 31/03/2026 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 18/06/2026 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 21% | +0.06 |
| 25/07/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 16/08/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 05/09/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 13% | +0.07 |