4
Master Christmas
6yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 83
Vaal · Betway Spring Challenge Bookings Call 011 681 1796 Middle Stakes · 7f 101y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Vaal | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Turffontein | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Turffontein | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Vaal | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Vaal | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Vaal | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 85% | +0.14 |
| 20/11/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 11/12/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 20/12/2025 | 10th | 17/2 | 55% | 55% | -0.00 |
| 05/03/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 18/06/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 19/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |