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2

Master Spy

4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 64

Vaal · Betway Spring Challenge Bookings Call 011 681 1796 Middle Stakes · 7f 101y

#2

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

62%

Place Prob

52%

Rank

#2

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner. Respectable third of 7 in minor event at this course (6f, good to soft, 4/1) 21 days ago. Back up in trip. Others have achieved more.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength88%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.4
Today:
Class gap: +2.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Turffontein 03/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 1323/06C8C8 @ Scottsville 09/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 132C8 @ Vaal 27/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 7f46y Gd 13027/01C8C6 @ Turffontein 12/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m209y Gd 121C1 @ Turffontein 14/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS14/03C1C0 @ Turffontein 04/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 1m4f40y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Turffontein 10/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 13410/05C5C0 @ Greyville 30/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Vaal 10/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 5f212y GS 12810/09C?projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Vaal?3rd3rd0
2026-05-30Greyville?9th4th+4
2026-05-10Turffontein?4th4th0
2026-04-04Turffontein?3rd-2th+4
2026-03-14Turffontein?3rd-1th+4
2026-02-12Turffontein?2nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0612/0210/0510/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.2% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/06/20253rd11/486%71%-0.14
09/07/20252nd6/492%89%-0.03
27/01/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
12/02/20262nd7/282%86%+0.04
14/03/20263rd4/179%83%+0.04
04/04/20263rd25/10%83%+0.83
10/05/20264th15/261%63%+0.02
30/05/20269th50/10%20%+0.20
10/09/20263rd10/382%67%-0.16