4
Alta Capitana
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 68
Vaal · Betway Fm 82 Handicap (F & M) · 7f 210y
#6
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength42%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | Vaal | ? | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Turffontein | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Turffontein | ? | 7th | 7th | −0 |
| 2026-01-22 | Vaal | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-01-01 | Turffontein | ? | 3rd | 4th | −0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Turffontein | ? | 11th | 4th | +6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength28%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/2025 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 27/07/2025 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/10/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/11/2025 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 01/01/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 22/01/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 01/02/2026 | 7th | 7/4 | 91% | 33% | -0.57 |
| 14/03/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 21/05/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |