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Coming In Hot

8yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 54

Vaal · Next Vaal Racemeeting Thursday 8 October Mr 74 Handicap · 6f 211y

#11

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner. Nineteen runs since last win in 2024. 7/1, 6¼ lengths sixth of 8 to Salute The Flag in handicap at this course (6f, good to soft) 14 days ago. Uphill task.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength48%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Turffontein 23/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 7f46y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS23/11C6C6 @ Turffontein 29/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 7f210y GS 130 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Vaal 20/12/2025 · Pos 15th of 19 · OR - · 7f73y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS20/12C6C7 @ Turffontein 07/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 5f169y Gd 134 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Turffontein 29/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 7f46y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS29/06C7C7 @ Turffontein 01/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 134C6 @ Vaal 13/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 7f46y GS 125 · HIGHER CLASS13/08C6C7 @ Vaal 03/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Vaal 17/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 5f212y GS 13217/09C7projClass-projected finish: 12th of 13
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Vaal?6th6th−0
2026-09-03Vaal?5th5th+0
2026-08-13Vaal?8th8th+0
2026-08-01Turffontein?10th10th−0
2026-06-29Turffontein?6th6th+0
2026-06-07Turffontein?8th8th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/117/0613/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 7-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength14%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/11/20257th28/10%14%+0.14
29/11/20259th40/10%0%0.00
20/12/202515th66/10%22%+0.22
07/06/20268th33/10%46%+0.46
29/06/20266th100/10%50%+0.50
01/08/202610th18/15%10%+0.05
13/08/20268th66/10%13%+0.13
03/09/20265th80/10%60%+0.60
17/09/20266th15/261%29%-0.32