IvyArcIvyArc
8

Proper

4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 55

Vaal · Next Vaal Racemeeting Thursday 8 October Mr 74 Handicap · 6f 211y

#8

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

1 win from 2 runs this year. 67/100, won 4-runner maiden at Turffontein (8f, good to soft) by 2¼ lengths from Rock My Boat. Off 147 days. Makes handicap debut. More needed.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Turffontein 29/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 19 · OR - · 5f169y GS 13029/11C8C8 @ Turffontein 04/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 1324/04C8C8 @ Turffontein 07/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR - · 7f210y GS 1327/05C8projClass-projected finish: 11th of 13
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-07Turffontein?1st3rd−1
2026-04-04Turffontein?4th6th−1
2025-11-29Turffontein?12th14th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/114/047/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength91%

Delivery trend +19.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/11/202512th5/174%39%-0.35
04/04/20264th10/382%50%-0.32
07/05/20261st4/696%100%+0.04