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10

Rock My Boat

4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 44

Vaal · Next Vaal Racemeeting Thursday 8 October Mr 74 Handicap · 6f 211y

#12

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

One win from 22 Flat runs. 9/2, below form 7¼ lengths fifth of 12 to Commander of All in handicap at this C&D (good to soft) 14 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength47%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Turffontein 07/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR - · 7f210y GS 1327/05C8C8 @ Turffontein 16/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 132C7 @ Vaal 26/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 1m209y 13326/05C7C6 @ Vaal 02/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 115 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Turffontein 01/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 1291/08C7C7 @ Vaal 19/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Vaal 27/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 117 · HIGHER CLASS27/08C6C8 @ Vaal 03/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 115C7 @ Vaal 17/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 6f211y GS 13417/09C7projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Vaal?5th6th−0
2026-09-03Vaal?2nd3rd−1
2026-08-27Vaal?2nd1st+1
2026-08-19Vaal?7th7th+0
2026-08-01Turffontein?3rd3rd−0
2026-07-02Vaal?8th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/052/0727/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 3-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength38%

Delivery trend +1.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/05/20262nd15/261%67%+0.06
16/05/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
26/05/20266th14/126%55%+0.28
02/07/20268th40/10%0%0.00
01/08/20263rd40/10%80%+0.80
19/08/20267th25/10%54%+0.54
27/08/20262nd40/10%86%+0.86
03/09/20262nd15/261%86%+0.25
17/09/20265th7/282%64%-0.18