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Satyagraha

5yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 76

Vaal · Next Vaal Racemeeting Thursday 8 October Mr 74 Handicap · 6f 211y

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

15%

Place Prob

20%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner. Latest win here in July. 6/1, creditable fourth of 8 in handicap at Turffontein (7.4f, soft) 26 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Turffontein 19/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 7f46y Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS19/02C6C5 @ Greyville 29/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 7f210y Std 136 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Vaal 21/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS21/05C6C7 @ Turffontein 29/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 7f46y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Turffontein 11/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS11/07C6C6 @ Turffontein 21/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Vaal 30/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 7f46y Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS30/07C7C6 @ Vaal 27/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Turffontein 05/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 7f101y GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS5/09C6projClass-projected finish: 8th of 13
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Turffontein?4th4th+0
2026-08-27Vaal?8th7th+1
2026-07-30Vaal?1st1st+0
2026-07-21Turffontein?3rd2nd+1
2026-07-11Turffontein?5th4th+1
2026-06-29Turffontein?7th7th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0229/0630/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 5-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength28%

Delivery trend -7.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/02/20267th33/10%45%+0.45
29/03/20264th15/261%67%+0.06
21/05/20264th9/276%80%+0.04
29/06/20267th5/174%40%-0.34
11/07/20265th9/153%67%+0.14
21/07/20263rd4/179%71%-0.08
30/07/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
27/08/20268th4/179%0%-0.79
05/09/20264th7/163%57%-0.06