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Spy Story

5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 57

Vaal · Next Vaal Racemeeting Thursday 8 October Mr 74 Handicap · 6f 211y

#5

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner. Two wins from 44 Flat runs. Good length second of 12 to Commander of All in handicap at this C&D (good to soft, 9/4) 14 days ago. Stepping back in the right direction.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength21%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Turffontein 30/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS30/12C6C7 @ Vaal 31/03/2026 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Turffontein 23/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 5f212y GS 13223/04C7C7 @ Turffontein 07/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 5f212y GS 125C7 @ Vaal 26/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 5f212y 13026/05C7C8 @ Turffontein 01/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 5f169y Gd 115C7 @ Turffontein 08/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 1258/08C7C7 @ Vaal 03/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 117 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Vaal 17/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 6f211y GS 12917/09C7projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Vaal?2nd3rd−0
2026-09-03Vaal?1st1st+0
2026-08-08Turffontein?2nd3rd−0
2026-08-01Turffontein?6th7th−1
2026-05-26Vaal?8th9th−1
2026-05-07Turffontein?5th5th−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/127/058/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength89%

Delivery trend +5.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/12/20258th13/266%13%-0.53
31/03/202614th20/10%13%+0.13
23/04/20264th9/153%70%+0.17
07/05/20265th9/276%50%-0.26
26/05/20268th4/179%36%-0.43
01/08/20266th28/10%0%0.00
08/08/20262nd9/153%86%+0.33
03/09/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
17/09/20262nd2/189%91%+0.01