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13

Sunshine Day

6yo Mare · 8-8 · OR 42

Vaal · Next Vaal Racemeeting Thursday 8 October Mr 74 Handicap · 6f 211y

#13

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner. Twenty eight runs since last win in 2023. Very good fifth of 11 in handicap at this C&D (good, 16/1) 9 days ago. Very hard to make a case for.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Turffontein 23/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 7f46y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS23/08C6C7 @ Vaal 02/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 131C6 @ Vaal 30/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 6f211y Sft 122 · HIGHER CLASS30/09C6C7 @ Turffontein 16/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 7f46y Gd 136C7 @ Vaal 04/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 1334/11C7C7 @ Turffontein 13/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 7f46y Gd 136C7 @ Turffontein 16/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 13216/08C7C7 @ Vaal 27/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Vaal 22/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 12622/09C7projClass-projected finish: 10th of 13
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-22Vaal?5th5th−0
2026-08-27Vaal?6th6th+0
2026-08-16Turffontein?6th7th−0
2025-11-13Turffontein?7th8th−0
2025-11-04Vaal?7th8th−0
2025-10-16Turffontein?3rd4th−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0816/1016/0822/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 6-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength8%

Delivery trend -1.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/08/20252nd18/15%88%+0.82
02/09/20252nd5/287%83%-0.04
30/09/20253rd8/158%83%+0.25
16/10/20253rd6/168%71%+0.03
04/11/20257th11/271%25%-0.46
13/11/20257th15/261%33%-0.27
16/08/20266th40/10%44%+0.44
27/08/20266th28/10%29%+0.29
22/09/20265th14/126%60%+0.34