4
Commander Worsley
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 84
Woodbine · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +9.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 19/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 15/11/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 30/11/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 26/06/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 28/08/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |