2
El Alacran
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 91
Woodbine · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
74%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-12 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength64%
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/09/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 17/10/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 21/11/2025 | 7th | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 12/12/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 21/08/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 13% | -0.61 |
| 12/09/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |