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Interim Analysis
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 66
Woodbine · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 6f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-06-07 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-05-16 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength77%
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 19/10/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 13/12/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 07/06/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 56% | -0.30 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 19/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |