Jack Sparrow

2yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 64

Woodbine · Race 3 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 7f

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

82%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark

Move▬

Strength38%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +0.5

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-13	Woodbine	?	9th	8th	+1	1.6
2026-08-16	Woodbine	?	3rd	2nd	+1	7.6
2026-06-28	Woodbine	?	9th	8th	+1	1.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick

Trend▬

Strength92%

Delivery trend -0.8% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 8.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
28/06/2026	9th	14/1	26%	11%	-0.15
16/08/2026	3rd	16/1	16%	75%	+0.59
13/09/2026	9th	12/1	37%	20%	-0.17