Clearwater Beach
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 74
Woodbine · Race 4 - Optional Claiming · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2025-11-21 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 19/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 09/11/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 21/11/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 13/12/2025 | 10th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 11/07/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 20/08/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.41 |